Mortgage rates have been highly sensitive to the economic data in recent weeks. Daily volatility has been high even from reports which usually produce a limited reaction. The balance of the data released this week was stronger than expected, which caused mortgage rates to end a little higher. It is very important for us to know when a deal gets under agreement as that timing of the rate lock could change what your clients can lock into from day-to-day. We’ve seen rates fluctuate by .125% – .25% within 24 hours lately! This indicates to me the markets don’t know which way to go as any little news garners a big (sometimes unwarranted) reaction.
Following a much improved Employment report on May 3, mortgage rates have been in an upward trend for most of this month. The trend continued to start the week when the April Retail Sales report was stronger than expected. While the consensus was for a small decline, a slight increase was reported. Mortgage rates finally received some relief on Thursday, primarily due to the Jobless Claims report. Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 360K, far above the consensus of 330K. After three weeks with readings below 350K, investors were disappointed by the results, which called into question the recent strength in the labor market.
The housing market data released this week was mostly positive. While April Housing Starts declined from the multi-year highs seen in March, mostly due to multi-family units, Building Permits jumped to the highest level since June 2008. Building Permits are a leading indicator of future building activity. In another positive sign, the May NAHB Home Builders confidence index increased significantly.
Some commentary sourced from MBSQuoteline.com

