Out with the Old, in with the New! WE’RE MOVING!

We are moving! This blog site is being moved to our new and improved site mortgagebankerofthepeople.com that will allow us to expand and improve upon our readers’ experiences. Our new site will have far more functionality and continued improvements as time moves along. Bear with us as we’re adding new features and content to improve upon the new page, but it’s up and running for full access! Right now we just wanted to make everyone aware of the exciting move. This “Your Mortgage Money” site will remain up for about another week or so, but we’ll have to wipe out the site and delete all content so not to confuse our friends at all the search engines. However, all our existing posts have been replicated over to our new site so all existing content and old blog posts can be found on the new site we’ve launched! 

A special thank you to all our subscribers and we hope you move over to mortgagebankerofthepeople.com to continue reading our real estate & mortgage market updates! 

A New Most Powerful Financier in the World, and it’s a Lady!

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It was a pretty quiet week in the financial markets. The new Chair of the Federal Reserve takes over today and is the first woman to ever hold the position. Janet Yellen now becomes the most powerful financier in the world! She is expected to maintain similar policy as her predecessor Ben Bernanke. So the change has not impacted the market’s expectations for Fed behavior. This is a good thing for housing as Bernanke’s Fed has established a very interest-rate-friendly environment as he led us through the financial difficulties of years past. 
 
All this said interest rates remain at their lowest levels since Thanksgiving and sets up spring market buyers very nicely! 
 
Enjoy the warmest weekend we’ve had in what seems like forever and hope everyone finds a fun place to watch the Super Bowl. It should be a great game with the NFL’s top offense vs. top defense. My take….
 
Denver 28 Seattle 17
 

Market Update 1-24-2014

I always forget how global our U.S. economy is…until news out of China sends stocks reeling and the bond market in a strong two-day rally. The slowdown reported in China’s manufacturing sector had a big impact this week pushing rates down about .25% for the lowest rate sheet we’ve seen in quite a few weeks. This week’s Existing Home Sales data showed that, despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, 2013 reflected a year of solid gains. Over five million existing homes were sold in 2013, an increase of 9% from 2012, and the highest level since 2006. While the gains may be more modest, most analysts expect the improvement to continue in 2014 as well. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) projects a very small increase in home sales next year, but both Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecast home sales to increase about 5% in 2014.
Great stats for housing and I feel confident saying that while these national projections are good news our local area has outperformed the nation the last couple of years and should continue to do so!
 Stay warm out there this weekend and THANK YOU for all your support!

Government Shutdown Over – what are rates doing now?!

From Trident Mortgage’s Director of Secondary Marketing, Phil McGoldrick (aka Oz!):

Now that we’ve gotten a deal from the government to re-open, we begin to look at where that puts us and what the prospects are going forward.  Since this is only a “kick the can down the road” deal, and we know that we will need to have a deal in place by mid January, or we will go through all of this again (lets face it, we’ll be going through this again with how dysfunctional Congress has been).  We need to look at a few pieces of information to see where we are going:

1: What was the effect on the economy from the government shutdown?

The few projections I have seen are in the camp that the shutdown will cost about .3-.5 off of the GDP for the 4th quarter.  Since we were sub 2% in growth going in, this is significant, and shows that the economy is going to need some help to get back on track.

2: With the specter of another government shutdown in January looming, will the Fed look to taper before then if no deal is actually reached in Congress.

Conventional wisdom on this for now is that the Fed tapering is on hold for the time being.  Since the economy looks to need a jump start, it is reasonable (although not guaranteed) to expect that the Fed will see this and hold off on Tapering until after the next deadline (unless there is a real budget deal in place before then)

Time will tell, but right now we are seeing the “relief rally” where cash that was on the sidelines is being put back into play in both stocks and bonds.  (both rallied after the news of an agreement yesterday)  We will see how the numbers come out over the next couple of weeks, but the anticipation is that some will be muted from expectations due to the shutdown.

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Trident Mortgage Rate Sheet 9-22-2013

Interest Rate Volatility Continues

In highly anticipated news, the Federal Reserve statement caught nearly every investor by surprise, since they did not begin to taper its bond purchase program. Mortgage rates swiftly dropped following the news and ended the week lower.

While the vast majority of investors expected a small cut in the quantity of monthly Fed bond purchases, the Fed made no change. According to the statement, Fed officials will wait for signs of stronger economic growth before scaling back its bond purchases. Fed Chief Bernanke stated that the economic data “does not yet provide sufficient confirmation” to justify reducing bond purchases. For mortgage rates, the continued demand from the Fed for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is positive. Investors lost some faith in their ability to anticipate what the Fed will do, though, which likely will lead to high levels of volatility in the future.

The good news for many real estate markets is that the housing sector has been a major source of strength for the economy this year. By waiting to taper, Fed officials will have more time to see what impact the rise in mortgage rates in recent months will have on the housing market. The housing data released this week showed a modest pace of improvement. Here are some telling stats from reports this week:

  • August Existing Home Sales increased 2% to the highest level since February 2007, exceeding even the peak seen in November 2009 when the homebuyer tax credit was set to expire
  • Existing Sales were 13% higher than one year ago
  • Total inventory of existing homes available for sale rose slightly to a 4.9-month supply

TRIDENT MORTGAGE RATE SHEET 9-22-2013

Trident Mortgage Rate Sheet 8-24-2013

 

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Another week of major volatility in the mortgage rates…we were relatively quiet until the release of the Federal Reserve 7/30 meeting minutes. The details of the minutes furthered uncertainty and interest rates moved .25% higher just on Wednesday afternoon! The good news is we saw them come right back down Friday when the New Home Sales figures came in lower than expected. Quite the roller coaster. It is extremely important in these volatile times for interest rates you inform us once an agreement of sale is reached (once we have a signed agreement we can formally lock the interest rate!). Wednesday is a perfect example…if we found out about a signed agreement at 10am and moved quickly on the rate lock (which we’re doing these days) that buyer could be .25% of a lower rate as opposed to finding out a 4pm that very same day. Crazy, but as we all know in real estate – TIME is of the essence! 

TRIDENT MORTGAGE RATE SHEET

Trident Mortgage Rate Sheet 8-18-2013 with Market Insights

Rates ended the week slightly higher due to renewed concerns over the “tapering off” by the Fed in terms of their Treasury & Mortgage Securities purchase programs. Here are some highlights from the week: 

  • The housing sector continues to improve despite the recent rise in home loan rates, as Housing Starts rose 5.9 percent from June to July to 896,000 on an annualized basis. This was in line with estimates. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, were up 2.7 percent, coming in above expectations. In addition, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rose to 59 in August from the 57 recorded in July. This is the best level in nearly eight years. Housing recovery continues to heat up
  • Last week, research firm CoreLogic reported that home prices across the U.S. rose by nearly 12 percent from June 2012 to June 2013. By comparison, home prices only rose 3.76 percent from June 2011 to June 2012. In addition, research and analytics firm Clear Capital said that prices rose 9.3 percent in the year ended in July.The housing markets have turned the corner to greener pastures, but it’s important to note that this pace of growth may be unsustainable. With home loan rates rising over the past several months, this rate of appreciation could slow.
  • Jumbo Loan Rates (for loans 417k and higher) the same as Conforming Loans (417k and under) - here is a short video on the topic 

Thanks again for all your support, and hopefully this is some valuable information to share with your clients! Good luck at your open houses and if you need me I am always available on the weekends! 

TRIDENT MORTGAGE RATE SHEET 8-18-2013



I believe transparent & easy to read mortgage market analysis is hard to come by. My Certified Mortgage Banker designation through the Mortgage Bankers Association is held by only 1000 mortgage professionals across the industry. I hope to leverage this knowledge & expertise to update, inform, and add value to my clients, realtors, as well as anyone looking for a comprehensive breakdown of the mortgage market.

Twitter @MortgageBankrPA


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